Modeling of quinoa production applying ARIMA in Puno-Peru

• Luis Francisco Laurente Blanco

  , Facultad de Ingeniería Económica, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano - Perú (UNAP) y Grupo Fibonacci de Ciencias Económicas (GRFICE)

  Author

• Analuz Mamani Huanacuni

  , Facultad de Ingeniería Económica, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano - Perú (UNAP)

  Author

The production of quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa) is of economic and social importance for the population of the Puno region because this crop is the livelihood of approximately 100 thousand rural families in the region where according to figures from the last census, it is one of the regions poorest in Peru with a poverty rate of 24.2%. In this sense, the production of quinoa in the region of Puno is very important because more than 3,500 masl there are not many crop options, then it is necessary to carry out projection studies in order to plan agricultural activities in the region. The objective of this research is to apply a Box-Jenkins ARIMA model
for the modeling of quinoa production in Puno. The study considers annual data between 1951 and 2017 extracted from MINAGRI. The best model found for quinoa production in Puno was ARIMA (0, 1, 4) using the AIC (Akaike) and SC (Schwarz) criteria. Then, the study is useful for the planning of quinoa production activities and policy decisions in the agricultural sector.

1. Luis Francisco Laurente Blanco, , Facultad de Ingeniería Económica, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano - Perú (UNAP) y Grupo Fibonacci de Ciencias Económicas (GRFICE)

   Ingeniero Economista con Maestría en Informática por la Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Perú. Realizó estudios de posgrado en matemáticas y estadística en la USP e IMPA del Brasil, su área de interés es la economía matemática. Actualmente realiza investigaciones en el Grupo Fibonacci de Ciencias Económicas (GRFICE).

2. Analuz Mamani Huanacuni, , Facultad de Ingeniería Económica, Universidad Nacional del Altiplano - Perú (UNAP)

   Ingeniero Economista con Maestría en Economía por la Universidad Nacional del Altiplano, Perú. Su área de especialización son los proyectos de inversión pública.

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